Housing Market Will Return on May 6, 2009 – Get Ready

Housing is a common topic of conversation these days. In fact over the past few days a few people have asked me if I could help them sell their homes. Now, I politely explain that I arrange for home loans and am not licenced as a real estate agent.  This hasn’t deterred some folks. One lady I spoke to today told me she’d used three different real estate agents in the past year and she couldn’t sell her home. She didn’t blame the agents, she was too smart. She made the point that you can’t sell something if you don’t have a buyer. So, she wanted to know if I could help her find some buyers!

This has got to be the “comment of the year”. No matter how shiny your widget, you can’t sell if if there is no buyer. Now replace widget for anything and you get the point. This lady hit the nail on the head.

So, when are they buyers coming back? May 6, 2009 to be exact! Acutally, to be perfectly honest, I don’t know. However, I’m more inclined to say the market will not be back for another whole year. The soonest you could expect a recovery is probably Q4 of 2008. However, I’m of the opinion that it’s more likey to be around early to mid 2009 before we have enough buyers to balance out the sellers.

Bloomberg makes a similar point:

For U.S. homeowners, builders, bankers and realtors, the crash of 2007 will only get worse in 2008.

Everyone from mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. expects declines next year. Existing home sales will drop 12 percent and existing home prices will fall 4.5 percent, Washington-based Fannie Mae says. Lehman analysts estimate almost 1 million mortgage loans will default in 2008, up from about 300,000 this year.

“We’re only halfway through the housing shock,” said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at New York-based Lehman, the fourth- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. “It’s just a matter of time before the weakness spreads to the rest of the economy.”

Is this too dire? Maybe. Is this too rosy? Maybe. Like I said, the housing market will return on May 6, 2009. You’re welcome to leave a message.

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